2 Weeks till Christams

Us markets up strongly Friday and now looking to see if any carry on this week, sometimes you get the secondary spike up and then it comes off, that was the 2nd spike friday

Thats the historical pattern for this time of year, doesnt say its going to work and 07 rings in many peoples minds too.

I always like/try to trade with the current trend

http://tc.md.it-finance.com/MDV8/showimage.phtml?id=7cef0432c96719e67add18a9609c425f4a9d372a91f0fe530b6eb5cf6ce0fc5e


Last weeks action here didnt even break the 50% of the range up from the lows
http://tc.md.it-finance.com/MDV8/showimage.phtml?id=7cef0432c96719e67add18a9609c425f4a9d372a91f0fe530b6eb5cf6ce0fc5e

Depending on where your long from ( i was lucky ) thats how i would gauge my risk

Sure there are points on resistance on both charts above and they can offer low risk shorts and given this is a great 144 weeks count on SP,in that i mean if it turns they set up quite easily without having to stand in front of the existing train LOL, though I wouldnt be flexing the tostesterone to close to xmas

OF note last weeks pull back also hit the 195ema on the daily

CASH levels for today
4243/4260/4285


weekly stab 4340/4180. i did want the 4122 hit also last week didnt quite go there maybe the russian instability might do something.

Enjoy the week


310 pm 12122011
Quite a nice session on the CASH with staying within upper and offering a lower long prior to close

DAX 5925/6060/6105 watch 5970 for a reverse to long if it holds, wider time frame im looking at 5800/6200

530am 13122011

Markets have given back the gains from Friday, which in part was expected however will be intereting where to
XJO 50% of the move up around the 4160 and also again I mention the 4122, which are the 2 levels im keen to work risk out on

Today I have 4160/4205/4220, pressure is now on the bull however as above the 2 numbers look important to me

djia 11909/12260 remembering breakout in late november was 11600, lets see how fond of the 12,000 they are, ooops forgot the fib 50% (test of strenght) at 11728 and 38% at 11864. 2 Hourly the last down range exceeded the previous but still in the channel

having trouble posting charts at present i think its somethign to do with the ad block thing i smartly put on LOL

550pm 13122011

XJO today snuggled in between the lower and mid levels in what was an expected quite day, as i look at the chart now i cant help but think the next dip is a buy and would be cool to see the 4122 hit although i still only see the 50% level for now

DAX
i gave some roughies and the weekly was 5800, surprise where we got to last night once through that lower level and here we are
tonight 5750/5870/5925 always got to see the bearish side after huge US down,

preferred action wld be more weakness and then a buy and bare in mind friday is OPEX in US and also end of quarter on 30th

enjoy the night might do some US levels later


530am 14122011

DAX touched the loner level and then up to the mid, and i guess as per last night after the big US down you wouldnt expect much more ? as I type its now back putting pressure on the lower level from last night and a weak US close that will go LOL


US session is in no mans land really and would surprise me to see if give up gains with movement either way into 15/16th

Overnight session on CASH hit yesterdays 4220 but thats cheating LOL

CASH bit early for them but right now I got 4176/4220, why 2 well break either and go with bearing in mind the 4122 is still a thought

HAve Fun

555pm 14122011

DAX i got 5685/5750/5800 not alot there really although I guess the hold below the weekly 5800 looks important, although again like all markets they might swagger till friday on tomorrow, took it to mid and will see if up to upper and beyond ?

CASH

Didnt get to the 4122 and looks to ahve traded around the 4175 most of the time apart from the blip into 4200


Yesterday, I mentioned the fibs on the djia and not quite to the 38% level yet ????
I dont spell check either Im sorry i just type and go :)

Be good to see the bears give the markets a real touch up here, but been so weak since the november lows, would tie in nicely if they did for the opening chart guide


530am 15122011
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CASH low was 4129 so far with 2 hours to go US session and DAX got to the lower level overnight and also DJIA inot the 38% for now. Was looking for this hit last night and nice to see but more importanly where they take it to.

CASH of course im looking for a reversal of sorts out of the 4122 given its the 15th, but knowing also that OPEX is Friday in the US so it can be moved around some. Identify the risk I want and then play the numbers. Old numbers are 4080 and the 61.8 is at 4110.

Apoart from that I got 4122/4155/4180


430pm 15122011

CASH a little bit below the 55 and 22 given this morning, I sometimes wonder if you even had to wait for the US close to produce an action plan anyway. It works and makes money I guess

DAX now well below the 5800 and once that was broken it has not gone above again which proves it was a weekly level and therefore good to keep in the notebook. Right now 5675 is the 61.8% fib and i know its a fav of many, but when the market moves beyond the 50% its plain WEAK no other word to describe unless you have reversal opportunity, but they should be traded as just that. Daily is now below the 41ema and on that chart i got 5400 showing, so I wait to see if the reversal comes if not, so be it and go with.
DAX 5655/5725/5800

EAsy market at present enjoy the night

530 am 16122011

DAX all but completes from lower to upper again so nice overnight and CASH even got close to the 4185 from yesterday, 5838 stands out on the dax if it was open now

CASH 4200/4175/4122, big cluster price level in the middle there and probably hold the key either way, today look for 4140 if it holds then go up otherwise stick to previous numbers :)
Said it before but OPEX in US tonigt, not that it always work but sometimes you will see it push up or down into the close therefore worth jumping on and also standing aside if you have opposing view at the time.

510pm 16122011

43 and 72 were good, so while 40 was in the 3 it was the obvious spot to buy as such a short term strong horizontal
That DAX level should be hit shortly, the one from this morning and then 5855, but for the numbers
DAX 5855/5750/5701

Will probably focus a little later on the US markets and then trade there close

Enjoy

5pm 17122011
Reflecting back a little and notice how controlled the US close was and quite obvious behind all the talk where they wanted it to close, as per options ex chart.
The DAX again failed at the 5800 and petered out to the lower level although it zipped 50 pts past this which when trading a short you don't mond so much, hit the levels and then trail it.
I will never forget those words from Redbacka " why sell close something if its still making money "
CASH trickled backed down to the 4122 area and I guess no a low volume week into Christmas will probably see this number lose significance.

I decided this week to just blog my thoughts and see how different it would be, and I must say it was refreshing to avoid all comments and opinions. See I would walk in, do my levels and assess any positions I had, then set orders. And only then would I read twitter or other social media sites. I made a pact to myself to not go back and change my orders after reading something elsewhere.
For me I found this amazing, as I not only did the normal trades, but I not once when back and changed a order due to market news, opinions or media coverage of any aspect of the markets. It proves to me that the most simplest of plans and a very simple attitude to markets is all that is required.
I love the markets but in recent times have become very skeptical of the way social media has engulfed our lives and Im the first to admit its addictive and yes I border on it too.I see so many tweets at times which really do make one dizzy with market thoughts on direction and this week proved to me that it can/could really do your head in.
Anyway I am goign to dedicate a bit of time to these aspects over the xmas break as I think any newer traders or younger traders would benefit from knowing our destructive social media is becoming.
Not for one minute to I regret my time on social media pages and in many ways and blessed to have become trading buddies and friends with so many people, and at times to also share personal joys and tough times with others. So don't think Im copping out on mates and traders when you read these thoughts, its just me digging into the inners of social media :))

As I said earlier in the week, no spell checks and no proof read, its straight out the fingers without regret for all to see, enjoy and have a little reflection on your time on social media pages, and make sure this Christmas you go next door and wish those who live closest to you a very Merry Christmas

Regards
Rob